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Published

Sample size estimates for biomarker-based outcome measures in clinical trials in autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease

Authors

David M Cash, Katy E Morgan, Antoinette O'Connor, Thomas D Veale, Ian B Malone, Teresa Poole, Tammie Ls Benzinger, Brian A Gordon, Laura Ibanez, Yan Li, Jorge J Llibre-Guerra, Eric McDade, Guoqiao Wang, Jasmeer P Chhatwal, Gregory S Day, Edward Huey, Mathias Jucker, Johannes Levin, Yoshiki Niimi, James M Noble, Jee Hoon Roh, Racquel Sánchez-Valle, Peter R Schofield, Randall J Bateman, Chris Frost, Nick C Fox, Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network (DIAN)

Abstract

medRxiv [Preprint]. 2024 Nov 16:2024.11.12.24316919. doi: 10.1101/2024.11.12.24316919.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Alzheimer disease (AD)-modifying therapies are approved for treatment of early-symptomatic AD. Autosomal dominant AD (ADAD) provides a unique opportunity to test therapies in presymptomatic individuals.

METHODS: Using data from the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network (DIAN), sample sizes for clinical trials were estimated for various cognitive, imaging, and CSF outcomes.

RESULTS: Biomarkers measuring amyloid and tau pathology had required sample sizes below 200 participants per arm (examples CSF Aβ42/40: 22[95%CI 13,46], cortical PIB 32[20,57], CSF p-tau181 58[40,112]) for a four-year trial to have 80% power (5% statistical significance) to detect a 25% reduction in absolute levels of pathology, allowing 40% dropout. For cognitive, MRI, and FDG, it was more appropriate to detect a 50% reduction in rate of change. Sample sizes ranged from 75-250 (examples precuneus volume: 137[80,284], cortical FDG: 256[100,1208], CDR-SB: 161[102,291]).

DISCUSSION: Despite the rarity of ADAD, clinical trials with feasible sample sizes given the number of cases appear possible.

PMID:39606328 | PMC:PMC11601746 | DOI:10.1101/2024.11.12.24316919